160 COVID-19 patients could occupy ICU beds in mid-December: expert

CALGARY (660 NEWS) — Alberta continues to grapple with rising COVID-19 numbers reporting 907 new cases on Friday, the second-highest daily case count since early November.

The number of people hospitalized has increased to 240, with 54 of those admitted to intensive care units.

Currently, 77 per cent of the provinces 70 COVID-19 ICU beds are occupied.

Premier Jason Kenney and Alberta’s Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Deena Hinshaw have expressed concerns over the rising number of hospitalizations and ICU admissions. They both warned if this trend continues there will be challenges in delivering non-urgent health services.

Non-urgent surgeries, hospital transfers, and outpatient care have already been postponed in certain parts of the province.

Dr. Daniel Gregson, infectious diseases and microbiology expert and an associate professor at the U of C, believes ICU numbers could more than double by mid-December.

“Looking back to Thanksgiving we had about 10 people in our ICUs with COVID-19, three weeks from that at the beginning of November we had 20 and now three weeks after that we have over 40,” he said.

“The projection now, two to three weeks from now, we’re going to have 80 people in the ICU and then two or three weeks after that it’s going to be 160 unless we actually blunt this curb.”

Gregson added the new restrictions handed down by the province won’t do much to curb this projection because those who end up in the ICU two weeks from now were infected before the measures were implemented.

Although the province could hit its capacity, Gregson says they do have the ability to open more ICU beds.

“We are stressing the health care system now, we are looking at having to expand our capabilities to deal with this in the near future if things don’t improve,” he said.

“Staffing plans and bed plans are available in Alberta Health Services to deal with increasing numbers, but of course we would like not to do that because as you have to compromise other care you want to provide patients with.”

There are 10 hospitals in Alberta dealing with outbreaks, including Foothills Medical Centre, Peter Lougheed Centre, Rockyview General Hospital in the Calgary zone.