Pipeline decision may cost Trudeau a lot of votes in next federal election: analyst

OTTAWA, ON. (NEWS 1130) – It was a controversial decision and one that’s being met with a lot of criticism, but unless a third-party buyer steps in by August, the federal government will own the Trans Mountain pipeline. A project Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has repeatedly said will be built.

SFU Political Scientist David Moscrop says even though it’s an unpopular decision for some, it likely won’t cost Trudeau the next election, but it will cost him ballots at the polls.

It may feel like betrayal to those who supported Trudeau as he touted how important the environment was, when elected, but the BC government is in a different category.

“I don’t think this on its own, unless something goes very bad, is going to do it. That said, it’s probably going to cost him a bit in BC.”

You may feel Ottawa’s decision speaks volume about that old adage that the East hates the West and vice versa.

“I guess you can see where it comes from when you feel like you’re so far away from Ottawa and someone’s making decisions that affect you that they don’t have to live the effects of themselves day to day. In 2015, British Columbia overturned 18 Liberal MPs, which is a lot [and] that was in part on the strength of young people, Indigenous peoples and environmentalists voting and you might expect them to be shopping around for another party now. If there is a core group that doesn’t like Justin Trudeau, there’s now another core group that feels they’ve been stabbed in the back by him with this pipeline move.”

Pick a side

Regardless of what side you’re on, one question you may be wondering is: did it have to come to this?

Moscrop chuckles and says he’s not convinced there was another way to do this.

“If Kinder Morgan said, ‘Look, we don’t care if you indemnify the shareholders, there’s nothing you can do to keep up,’ and we don’t really know if they did or not, then this was it. There wasn’t really much else the government could do. In fact, there have been a few people who’ve said, ‘This is the best decision from a bad range of decisions that could’ve been taken.’ And if it’s just short-term, then this is just what the government… socializing the risk to get the project done and then they’ll give it back to the private [sector.]”

If this was truly the last resort, then what other options were on the table for feds?

“Assuming Kinder Morgan was going to play ball, you could’ve indemnified the investors, provided loan guarantees, you could’ve basically back-stopped the project that way. But if Kinder Morgan wanted out, then the other option was to either facilitate finding a seller in time, which in some sense is what they chose as well. The other option is to scrap the project altogether, but obviously that wasn’t on the project for them.”

Court case for BC far from over

Premier John Horgan and company promised to fight this and, so far, Moscrop feels they have, but not everyone agrees with how far Horgan has taken this.

Right now there’s still a case before the courts about who has ultimate jurisdiction over what flows through pipelines.

“I think he’ll be OK, in part because NDP or likely NDP voters are going to support him on this. I think they’ll even give him the benefit of the doubt if it goes through. Because he clearly has done what he said he was going to do, which is to use ‘every tool in the toolbox’ to try and stop it. He’s been an honest broker on that and I think he’ll be forgiven if it goes through.”

Moscrop also thinks as much attention as the pipeline debate has been getting over the past several months, there are still even bigger issues at the forefront for many British Columbians.

“I get the sense that centre and centre-right voters who are less likely to vote for him but could, this probably isn’t their most important issue like it would be in Alberta. Is it going to change your vote? Well, no. People will be like, ‘Can I afford healthcare? Can I afford transit? Can I get my kids into daycare? Do I have a shot at owning a home? What am I paying in taxes?’ That’s what they’re going to ask themselves.”

There’s also another legal challenge with some First Nations challenging the NEB process of the pipeline in the federal Court of Appeal.

As this plays out at a federal level and in the courts, protests for both sides continue to rage. There have been near weekly rallies at the metal gates of Kinder Morgan’s facility on Burnaby Mountain with more than 200 people having been arrested to date, including the leader of the federal Green Party and a former MP who’s running for mayor of Vancouver.

As for the strained relationship between Alberta and BC, Moscrop thinks that will eventually blow over.

The BC government maintains there are “gaps” in Ottawa’s spill response plan and Horgan says he’s taken the steps he has to protect the coast.

Click here to read his op-ed in Maclean’s Magazine earlier this week.